109th Dipsea: Predicting the winner of the storied trail race – Marin Independent Journal

Who will win the 109th Dipsea on June 9? The local betting scene hasn’t been quite as lively since Dipsea guru George Frazier, who organized the main predictions contest, migrated to Mexico four years ago. But ex-Marin resident Sam Spinrad and others keep alive the guessing game, a Dipsea tradition since runners first began racing from Mill Valley to Stinson Beach in 1905.

With more top Dipsea contenders living outside California, it’s become harder to gauge everyone’s fitness. Also, Marin’s Memorial Day 10K right before the Dipsea, a traditional key indicator, is no more. So, to compile my own predictions list for 2019, I use a formula that has proven quite reliable in past years. I start with the fastest actual time over the past three Dipseas for 2019 entrants. Then, for those over age 35, who are presumably slowing, I add some time, one to three minutes depending on age and whether their best mark was from 2016, ’17 or last year. Subtracting the runner’s 2019 head start or handicap — which are based on age and gender — yields what is called “clock time,” or finish order.

Here’s my “baker’s dozen” of top predicted finishers, with each runner’s age and projected clock time. (Note that top-10 contenders Gus Gibbs and Gary Gellin are omitted because, after entering, they announced they weren’t racing.) Given the brutal nature of the Dipsea course, and the toll it invariably takes, the only sure thing is that there will be surprises.

1. Brian Pilcher (age 62), 46:58 projected clock time: Kentfield’s Pilcher has already won the Dipsea three times, the last in 2016 with an actual time of 56:28. He missed the last two years, due to injury and an entry snafu. Pilcher still carries a Winners Penalty minute (which lasts three years) from that 2016 win. But if he can return anywhere close to the form that made him one of the most decorated national age group runners in Marin history — Spinrad, monitoring social media, says Pilcher “is in excellent condition” — he’ll reach Stinson first.

2. Alex Varner (33), 47:51: Varner, a Branson School grad, has won the Dipsea’s prestigious Best Time award eight times — tied with Mike McManus for most ever — but never the race itself. “Alex is in great shape and inspired,” according to 2008 Dipsea winner Roy Rivers. So he’s favored for another Time title, which would be a mighty and historic honor. Still, Varner is aiming for that other big trophy.

3. Heath Hibbard (66), 49:11: Hibbard, with a third and fourth place in the last three years, is part of an elite Colorado contingent making their mark on the Dipsea. At age 66, he’s racking up added head start minutes. He was the top American in his age group at the 2019 Boston Marathon.

4. Chris Lundy (48), 49:36: Sausalito’s Lundy repeated her 2017 victory last year with one of the greatest performances in quite a while when she ran, at age 47, the fastest time of any woman and held off a hard-charging Varner. It, too, was her seventh (women’s) Time trophy; the next highest woman has four. Despite two penalty minutes subtracted from her head start for those back-to-back wins, Lundy remains a threat.

5. Jorge Maravilla (41), 49:45: Maravilla is an outlier here; he has never run the Dipsea so my “formula” doesn’t apply. But as a two-time San Francisco Marathon champion, he was admitted directly into the Invitational section. Living in Mill Valley, Maravilla knows the terrain. I’m guessing a running time of 51:45 which, with his two head start minutes, would bring him home fifth.

6. Sissel Bernsten-Heber (55), 49:53: Bernsten-Heber has an impressive Dipsea Race resume, including three women’s Time trophies. She was seventh last year, and now gains a minute.

7. Cliff Lentz (54), 50:00: A perennial contender, Lentz, ex-mayor of Brisbane, California, will be up there again on June 9.

8. Diana Fitzpatrick (61), 50:30: Fitzpatrick is a two-time Dipsea champion. She finally sheds her Winner’s Penalty but, unfortunately, does not gain a minute for turning 61. She’s slowing less than other top runners so will arrive early.

9. Mark Tatum (59), 50:33: Another of the Colorado mountain goats, Tatum was third last year. But, in a quirk of the handicapping table, he does not gain a head start minute, though will every other year save one over the next 16.

10. Clara Peterson (35), 50:39: Peterson, a mother of four, won the Time trophy in 2014. She’ll battle Lundy and Fiona Cundy for the honor this year.

11. Fiona Cundy (32), 50:44: Cundy had the fastest time of any woman in both 2016 and ’17.

12. Brad Bryon (61), 50:47: Bryon has earned more coveted top-35 finish black shirts than anyone other than Russ Kiernan and Steve Stephens

13. Darrin Banks (53), 50:51: Dipsea Hall of Famer Joe King, who coached Banks, has long felt Darrin might one day win the Race.

Start placing your wagers!