How the NFL Season Mirrors the Road to the Triple Crown – America’s Best Racing

With the Super Bowl right around the corner, the time seemed right to take a look at how much the NFL season parallels the world of horse racing. If you watch football, play fantasy sports or bet on games, you know that the players have ups and downs and that coaches are constantly revising their playbook for the most important games of the season. The same holds true for racing, the horses (players), and their trainers (coaches).

Let’s start from the beginning though. In order to be eligible for the NFL draft, players must be three years removed from high school — in most cases, following their junior year of college. Similarly, in order to be eligible to race in the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, horses must be 3 years old. The added wrinkle in the Derby age requirement is that not only do horses have to be 3 years old to compete in the “run for the roses,” they may only compete in the Kentucky Derby during their 3-year-old season. (Fun fact: Regardless of their actual dates of birth, all horses turn a year older on Jan. 1. For example, all horses born in 2017 turned 3 years old on Jan. 1, 2020, and they represent the only horses who’ll be eligible to run in this year’s Kentucky Derby on May 2).

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Think about the process of qualifying for the Kentucky Derby in much the same way NFL teams make the playoffs. With each win an NFL team racks up during the season, they improve their chances of making the playoffs. In racing, wins in designated Kentucky Derby prep races, or qualifiers, count toward earning a place in the gate. You can find a full list of those races by clicking here.

If you take a close look at the prep race calendar, you’ll notice that the season for these Kentucky Derby-eligible horses actually began last September at Churchill Downs, where the Iroquois Stakes was run. Also note the “10-4-2-1” listed under the points column. What those numbers represent are the points earned by the top four finishers in that race. The winner of the Iroquois, Dennis’ Moment, earned 10 points; runner-up Scabbard earned 4 points; Lebda finished third and bagged 2 points; and fourth-place finisher Letmeno earned one point.

Once all of the Kentucky Derby prep races are run (the final two are scheduled for April 11), the top 20 points earners are eligible to race in the Kentucky Derby. If an injury or other unforeseen circumstance makes it impossible for one of the top 20 horses to compete, a slot opens up and horse number 21 on the leaderboard becomes eligible to enter the race. If multiple runners in the top 20 can’t go, slots open up further down the leaderboard (beyond the top 21) giving first preference to horses who’ve earned the most points during the season.

If we think of the racing prep season as being similar to the NFL regular season — where the more you win, the better you chances of making the playoffs — then we can look at the post-season in three parallel phases too. Skipping the wild card, there are three rounds of NFL playoff games: the divisional round, conference championships, and the Super Bowl.

In theory, the challenge of winning all three playoff games gets progressively harder as a team advances from one round to the next. Even if a winning team’s next opponent isn’t always better than their previous opponent, the challenge of winning three successive high-pressure games in a short period of time is pretty daunting. The same holds true for horse racing and winning the Triple Crown.

If you think of the Kentucky Derby as the divisional round (all of the best 3-year-old horses facing each other), you can think of the Preakness like you would the conference championship and the Belmont Stakes along the same lines as the Super Bowl — at least in years where the same horse has won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. In 2018, Justify, won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before moving on to the Belmont Stakes where he’d capture racing’s ultimate prize: the Triple Crown. You might remember that American Pharoah accomplished the feat, as well, in 2015, but prior to him there hadn’t been a Triple Crown winner in 37 years. That said, while a Super Bowl winner is guaranteed every season, it’s no sure thing that there will be a Triple Crown winner on any given year.

While you might’ve been aware of some of the similarities between the NFL season and the road that leads through racing’s Triple Crown, did you know that in racing there’s a second season too? That’s right, the racing calendar continues well beyond the Triple Crown as it launches into the Road to the Breeders’ Cup.

Like Derby preps, there are qualifying races for the Breeders’ Cup (which will be held this year at Keeneland on Nov. 6-7) and those qualifiers are part of what’s known as the Challenge Series. During the Challenge Series, horses from every racing division — not just 3-year-old horses, but additionally older horses, younger horses, dirt runners, turf runners, sprinters and long-distance runners — compete in “Win and You’re In” races that offer winners automatic entry to the Breeders’ Cup.

One final note for the bettors out there who’ll be firing away on every prop, adjusted line, and over/under for the Super Bowl, you might be interested in checking out the gambling options available on racing’s biggest events. The good news is you don’t have to wait for the Kentucky Derby either. Advanced wagering is available in numerous Kentucky Derby future pools that are offered on racing betting sites like Xpressbet, TwinSpires, TVG, NYRA Bets, Keeneland Select, and Oaklawn Anywhere, to name a few. The next Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool opens on Feb. 7 and you can find out more about it by clicking here.