The Runner’s World Poll: Who Will Make the Olympic Marathon Team? – Runner’s World

Part of the appeal of the Olympic Marathon Trials is its straightforward structure—finish in the top three, and you make the Olympic team; finish out of the top three, and you’ll spectate along with everyone else.

So, who will finish in the top three on February 29 in Atlanta? We asked 16 running experts to answer. The group includes seven Olympians, six of whom are previous U.S. Olympic marathoners. (See the full list below.) They predicted the top three women and men, in order. We then compiled the results for the table below, with three points for first place, two points for second place, and one point for third place.

Our panel thinks that Emily Sisson has the best chance to make the women’s team. This prediction might seem bold, given that Sisson has run only one marathon, last April’s London. But Sisson set the U.S. debut record on a record-eligible course of 2:23:08 there. Combine that accomplishment with the second-fastest half marathon in U.S. history and a strong history in championship races, and Sisson becomes a more logical choice. Sisson scored the most points (31 out of a possible 48), was predicted by the most panelists to win the race (8 out of 16), and was most often named as making the team (13 out of 16).

Sisson’s training partner, Molly Huddle, got the second most points (20). This consensus more reflects Huddle’s competitive record—she’s made every national team she’s tried out for since 2011—than her marathon PR, which is only the 10th fastest among qualifiers. The fastest qualifier, Jordan Hasay, received the third most points. Our experts apparently remain skeptical about her recovery from a hamstring injury that caused her to drop out three miles into October’s Chicago Marathon.

Ashley Bartholomew

In the men’s race, defending champion Galen Rupp came out on top, with 36 of 48 possible points. Those who voted after Rupp ran a successful half marathon tuneup on February 8 were more likely to predict him winning in Atlanta. In all, 10 experts said Rupp will win.

Our panel thinks U.S. debut record-holder Leonard Korir is most likely to challenge Rupp for the victory. Six picked Korir to win what will be only his second marathon. (If that sounds unlikely, remember that Rupp won the 2016 Trials in his debut at the distance.) Jared Ward, who finished third in 2016, will do so again this time, if our panel knows what they’re talking about. Of 16 voters, nine picked Ward to earn the final team spot.

Ashley Bartholomew

Share your picks in the comments below. (And here’s your guide to more of the top contenders.)

Our prognosticators:

• Sarah Lorge Butler, Runner’s World contributing writer.
• Mark Conover, 1988 Marathon Trials winner and director of track & field and cross country at Cal Poly.
• Mark Coogan, 1996 Olympic marathoner and New Balance Boston coach.
• Brian Dalek, Runner’s World director of content operations.
• Scott Douglas, Runner’s World contributing writer.
• Jeff Dengate, Runner’s World runner-in-chief.
• Ali Feller, host of .
• Lauren Fleshman, two-time U.S. 5,000-meter champion, cofounder of , co-host of .
• , two-time Olympian and 2007 world silver medalist at 10,000 meters.
• Alex Hutchinson, author of New York Times best seller , for Outside.
• , leading running agent.
• , four-time Olympian and 2012 Marathon Trials winner.
• Pete Pfitzinger, two-time Olympian, 1984 Marathon Trials winner, .
• Steve Spence, 1992 Marathon Trials winner and .
• Carrie Tollefson, television broadcaster, 2004 Olympian at 1500 meters, host of .
• Alison Wade, editor of .