Can the world’s greatest marathoner break the two-hour barrier? – Runner’s World (UK)

On a damp, grey morning in May 2017, on the storied Monza Formula One racetrack outside Milan, Eliud Kipchoge ran the fastest marathon ever recorded. The culmination of Nike’s Breaking2 project saw him come within touching distance of the most significant barrier in running. Having fallen just 26 seconds short, he was clear in the postrun interviews that it wasn’t the end of the sub-two story. ‘I’m a believer that it’s like climbing a tree – you step onto one branch and then the next,’ he told RW. ‘I am very happy to step onto the two-hour branch and this is not the end of trying to run under two hours. There is more to come in the future.’

True to his word, this month the greatest marathon runner in history will try to make history again. This time it’ll be in Vienna, in the Ineos 1:59 Challenge. It’s scheduled for October 12, although there’s an eight-day window running up to October 20 in case
the weather refuses to behave itself.

As with the Monza run, whatever time Kipchoge clocks won’t be eligible to beat his own world record because of breaches of IAAF rules, particularly concerning the 30-odd rotating pacemakers he’ll be using. And as with Monza, some will question the value of a time run outside a race scenario and with every detail micromanaged to maximise his speed. But if he does cross the line with a ‘1’ kicking off the digits on the clock, it would take the most churlish of naysayers not to recognise it as a giant leap, on a par with Roger Bannister’s sub-four-minute mile on Iffley Road track in 1954.

So what are his chances? We think they’re pretty good and here’s why:

The man

Maja HitijGetty Images

He believes:

Kipchoge’s greatest strength may be his mind; he has often emphasised the power of self-belief. ‘If you want to break through, your mind should be able to control your body,’ he said before hisLondon win this year.

His pre-Vienna state of mind seems as strong as ever. ‘My mental preparation for taking on such as challenge is just as important as my physical preparation,’ he says. ‘I need to internalise in my heart and my mind that I can run a sub-two-hour marathon.’ So does he truly believe he can do it? ‘I have no doubts,’ he told RW.

Part of that belief, of course, stems from having come so close at Monza, a point emphasised by Paula Radcliffe when we spoke to her after the 2017 Breaking2attempt. ‘The belief is the extra thing needed to make it happen,’ she said. ‘Yesterday I think he believed he could do it. But today he knows he can do it.’

He has the experience:

Along with self-belief, the Monza attempt taught Kipchoge valuable lessons, ‘[In Monza] I was like a boxer who is going into the ring and doesn’t know what will happen, but this time I am fully prepared,’ he says. ‘I now have the additional benefit of the knowledge I gained from Monza, and I believe because of my rich experiences in Monza I am in a much better position to run 26 seconds quicker and make history.’

He is the greatest

There are many great marathoners, and there’s Eliud Kipchoge. Not only is he the fastest of all time, he’s also unrelentingly consistent. The world record holder has won 11 out of his 12 marathons, including eight Marathon Major victories and the two fastest official marathon times in history. He does not have off days.

He’s stronger

Kipchoge is incorporating more strength work into his training, particularly core stability exercises, which he feels have made him a better athlete. ‘We are doing all sorts of exercises, drills and strength work,’ he says. ‘A difference to my Breaking2 training is the introduction of two exercise workouts a week to strengthen my core stability. My physio introduced them in the countdown to the 2018 Berlin Marathon and I really feel the benefit. I now feel less train on the hamstrings and with a stronger core this makes me less vulnerable to injuries.’

He’s training harder

Kipchoge has been training for Vienna in the same way he prepares for all of his major events, at a training camp in Kenya with long-time coach Patrick Sang and an elite team of Kenyan runners. But Kipchoge told RW he’s been running between 200 and 230 kilometres (124-140 miles) per week – a big jump in mileage from the weekly 190-210 kilometres (118-130 miles) in his pre-London training.

He’s also been putting in intense sessions on a hard-packed 400m dirt track and working with his pacemakers. ‘Another important element to the training is the work I’m doing with a couple of the Ineos 1:59 pacemakers who are here in camp with me,’ says Kipchoge. ‘My room-mate and long-time friend Augustine Choge and Victor Chumo.’

And he has the desire

Skeptics might question whether Kipchoge will be as committed to waht could be seen as a gimmick for an extra payday, but he sees this as part of his legacy. ‘It’s more important [than Olympics or Majors],’ he says. ‘It’s like the first man to go to the moon: I will be the first man to run under two hours, this is crucial. This is about history, it’s about leaving a legacy. Breaking the two-hour barrier is crucial for me. I want to show the world that when you trust in something and have faith in what you are doing, you will achieve it, whether you’re a runner, a teacher or a lawyer.’

He’s got faster

Last September, Kipchoge obliterated the world record when he won the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:39. Taking 78 seconds off the previous WR was the biggest single leap in more than 50 years. In April, he followed it up with the second-fastest ‘legal’ 26.2 of all time on the slower course of the London Marathon. This has to be seen as evidence that he’s capable of running the 0.36 per cent faster necessary to shave those 26 seconds in the optimised time-trial scenario. He certainly thinks so: ‘When I attempted Breaking2 my personal best was 2:03:05,’ says Kipchoge. ‘Now my PB is the world record, 2:01:39 and I have also run 2:02:37. This gives me further belief that I can break two hours.’

Joe MaherGetty Images

He’s had a shoe upgrade

The Vaporfly 4% shoes (engineered to make athletes four per cent faster) worn by Kipchoge at Monza, and developed by Nike for the Breaking2 project, set a new performance benchmark. The carbon fibre plates have proven even more effective at propelling athletes forward than they were in propelling themselves into controversy, but Nike has pressed on and the ZoomX Vaporfly Next%, which Kipchoge will wear in Vienna, are a major evolution. The carbon plate is still there, but a 15g drop in the weight of the upper means 15% more midsole has been added with no overall weight gain. The Vaporweave upper also offers a 75% reduction in moisture retention, according to Nike, reducing incremental weight increase from moisture.

The Next% is so named because Nike claims it boosts running economy by an extra one per cent over the Vaporfly 4%. Kipchoge only needs to run 0.36% faster.

The route

The course

After a showpiece start on Vienna’s Reichsbrücke bridge, Kipchoge will run 1.2km to The Prater, a park known as the ‘green lung of Vienna’, and begin four laps of the Hauptallee, the historic avenue that runs through it. Each lap will consist of two 4.3km straight stretches, with turning points coming at the Lusthaus and Praterstern roundabouts at either end of the avenue. That makes it roughly 90 per cent straight – far straighter than the Monza circuit, or any road-marathon route – and Kipchoge believes this will make a difference. It’s also pancake flat, with just a 2.6m height difference and 0.06 per cent gradient change on the route.

The pacers

A team of 30 or so pacers will include five-time Olympian Bernard Lagat.

The crowd

Around 250,000 spectators will give Kipchoge a motivational kick.

The location

Vienna offers many advantages as a venue for the attempt, including the fact that it’s only an hour behind Kipchoge’s home time zone. This means his sleeping and eating patterns won’t be disrupted and he can remain in Kenya, reaping the benefits of being at 2,400m altitude, before heading to the O₂-rich air of Vienna, at 165m, the day before his attempt.

The weather

Another major plus of Vienna is its weather – cool and sunny in October, with an average temperature of 10C (min 6.4C, max 14.3), low humidity and only six days of rain. This was
an area identified for improvement after Monza, when a shower spiked humidity. Higher humidity makes it harder for sweat to evaporate, which means the athlete feels hotter. Also, a wet surface means energy-sapping slipping. Vienna’s weather history and the eight-day window should ensure better conditions than Kipchoge had at Monza.

The pacers

The 30-or-so pacemakers will play a critical role and Kipchoge has been working with them to maximise the advantages. ‘Two of my training partners, Victor Chumo and Augustine Choge, have been assigned with that role and we have practised in track sessions to replicate what will happen in Austria,’ says Kipchoge. ‘The work we’ve done together has improved our coordination and will certainly form a critical component of my bid.’

The quality of the pacemaker line-up is also remarkable. In addition to 5000m Commonwealth Games gold medallist Choge and 60:03 half-marathoner Chumo, it includes Olympic 5000m silver medallist Paul Chelimo, European half-marathon record holder Julien Wanders, 2:07:12 marathoner Philemon Kacheran, five-time Olympian (and Breaking2 pacemaker) Bernard Lagat and Norwegian brothers Henrik, Filip and Jakob Ingebrigtsen, who have earned medals at European and World Championships in distances from 1500m to 5000m.

The crowd

While Kipchoge’s Monza attempt was streamed live around the world, it was sparsely attended, so he ran large sections without crowd support. This was a key area he and his team identified for improvement; and with an easily accessible course in a runners’
city (the Vienna City Marathon attracts 400,000 spectators), a crowd of around 250,000 is expected to turn up. Kipchoge believes the spectators ‘will certainly help’ and it’s a factor Radcliffe also picked up on after Monza. ‘The crowd were only in a 400m stretch and the
rest of the time it would have felt like a training run,’ she told RW. ‘The crowd can make a big difference. People tell me London is a harder course than Berlin, but for me the crowd support at London made a huge difference.’