Epsom Derby dozen: who are the early front-runners for the premier … – Thoroughbred Racing Commentary

Graham Dench runs the rule over the three-year-olds currently taking high rank in calculations for the Cazoo-sponsored Derby, Europe’s most prestigious Classic at Epsom on Saturday June 3, 2023.

GB: Like it or not, there is an ever increasing trend for winners of the Derby to come from just a handful of what might be termed ‘super stables’, and if the pre-season betting on the 244th running is any guide that trend is unlikely to be broken on June 3.

Of course racehorses can improve almost out of recognition from two to three, but Aidan O’Brien, bidding for a ninth win in the Derby, looks to have a worthy favourite in stylish Vertem Futurity winner Auguste Rodin. He also has a clutch of others who are prominent in the betting, while his sons Joseph and Donnacha also both have leading candidates.

Charlie Appleby has Flying Honours, Imperial Emperor and Silver Knott currently heading the numerous Godolphin possibles, while Sir Michael Stoute and John & Thady Gosden also have colts who are prominent in the betting.

The picture will start to clear once the principal trials begin in May, but here are a dozen leading candidates, plus a handful who are still a little under the radar.

1. AUGUSTE RODIN trained by Aidan O’Brien (IRE)

br c Deep Impact – Rhododendron (Galileo)
Odds generally available: 3-1f

Auguste Rodin dominates the winter lists for the Derby, trading at no bigger than 3-1 for a race that is still the best part of five months away. His credentials are obvious, for his stylish 3½-length defeat of main market rival Epictetus over a mile at Doncaster in October was among the stand-out juvenile wins of 2022 and trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Derby a record eight times, all since 2001.

That Doncaster win came in the G1 Vertem Futurity Stakes, won by four subsequent Derby winners since the turn of the century, including by his stable’s High Chaparral (2001) and Camelot (2011). In addition, he is impeccably bred for the job, by Deep Impact out of O’Brien’s three-time G1 winner Rhododendron, who was also second in the 1000 Guineas, the Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

So what’s not to like? Not much really apart from his short odds, although it’s worth bearing in mind that all his three wins following an unlucky-in-running debut defeat came on softish ground, while O’Brien’s Derby winners have not always been his likeliest candidates. After all, nobody had Ruler Of The World (2013), Wings Of Eagles (2017) or Serpentine (2020) on their radar at this stage of their careers.

2. AL RIFFA Joseph O’Brien (IRE)

b c Wootton Bassett – Love On My Mind (Galileo)
Odds 12-1

Aidan O’Brien’s older son Joseph won the Derby twice in his short career as a jockey, on Camelot in 2012 and on Australia in 2014, and he wasted no time in making an impact at the highest level once he switched to training.

Al Riffa put himself in the Derby picture when coming from off the pace to win the seven-furlong G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes from subsequent G1 winner Proud And Regal, pulling away.

That’s solid form and he is clear second favourite with most UK bookmakers at between 6-1 to twice as big, but judged on his breeding there has to be a doubt about his effectiveness over Epsom’s stiff mile and a half. It’s true there’s stamina on the side of the dam, who was unraced, but Wootton Bassett was best at up to seven furlongs and his best winners have been at up to ten furlongs.

3. IMPERIAL EMPEROR Charlie Appleby (GB)

b c Dubawi – Zhukova (Fastnet Rock)
Odds 16-1

The one-mile maiden at Newmarket in which Imperial Emperor made a winning debut lacked any substance, but one could not fail to be impressed by the manner in which he scored, for he quickened away impressively from the two-furlong marker and came home well clear under just hands and heels riding. 

Imperial Emperor will need to improve massively on that bare form if he is to come into serious reckoning for the Derby, but the same could have been said of Appleby’s 2021 winner Adayar, so he is not one to be underestimated. Dubawi has yet to get a Derby winner but his top-class mile-and-a-half winners include Ghaiyyath, a half-brother to the dam Zhukova, who won a Man O’War Stakes.

4. SILVER KNOTT Charlie Appleby (GB)

b c Lope De Vega – God Given (Nathaniel)
Odds 20-1

It was by only the narrowest of margins that Silver Knott that failed to give Charlie Appleby a fourth win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – and arguably he was unlucky, as he was slowly away then had to wait briefly for an opening in the straight before bursting through and pulling clear with Victoria Road. He had given Epictetus a much lesser beating in the G3 Autumn Stakes than Auguste Rodin managed at Doncaster three weeks later, but he remains a colt of considerable potential at three.

5. FLYING HONOURS Charlie Appleby (GB)

b c  Sea The Stars – Powder Snow (Dubawi)
Odds 20-1

Flying Honours is another among a clutch of promising young colts who might bid to give Charlie Appleby and Godolphin a third Derby win in five years, following Masar in 2018 and Adayar in 2021. His G3 win over a stamina-sapping ten furlongs in Newmarket’s Zetland Stakes certainly earned him his chance in one of the spring’s recognised Derby trials, but his stable has classier-looking candidates available at similar odds for the big race itself.

6. CONTINUOUS Aidan O’Brien (IRE)

b c Heart’s Cry – Fluff (Galileo)
Odds 20-1

The controversy that followed Christophe Soumillion’s elbowing Rossa Ryan out of the saddle in the G2  Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud deflected credit from Japanese-bred winner Continuous. The form is nothing special, but he was a worthy winner and clearly appreciated the step up to a mile after making all the running over seven furlongs at the Curragh on his debut. He needs to improve plenty to get involved in the finish of a typical Derby, but he is already in the mix and he looks a sounder stayer than many of his contemporaries.

7. EPICTETUS John & Thady Gosden (GB)

b c Kingman – Thistle Bird (Selkirk)
Odds 25-1

The attraction was obvious when George Strawbridge bought Thistle Bird for 750,000gns at Tattersalls in 2019 as the mare, who was in foal to Kingman, had been among the best fillies sired by his own stallion Selkirk, himself an outstanding miler.

Strawbridge has already secured a handsome return on his investment in the resultant progeny, and Epictetus has the potential to rate higher despite having been beaten by Silver Knott at Newmarket and Auguste Rodin at Doncaster after a winning debut at Newmarket.

Connections felt Epictetus was too weak to cope fully with the testing ground at Doncaster and they anticipate him developing into a high-class middle-distance colt. York’s Dante Stakes, which the stable’s Derby winners both used as a stepping stone to Epsom, has already been mentioned.

8. NOSTRUM Sir Michael Stoute (GB)

b c Kingman – Mirror Lake (Dubai Destination)
Odds 25-1

Juddmonte Farms had the distinction of being represented by joint favourites in Newmarket’s hugely prestigious Dewhurst Stakes. It was Andrew Balding’s Chaldean, carrying the second colours, who took first prize but his market rival Nostrum was an honourable third and he could be an equally exciting prospect at three.

While Chaldean is seen as very much a miler and has the 2000 Guineas as his main target, the big and scopey Nostrum promises to get middle distances. His trainer was saddling his sixth Derby winner when Desert Crown scored so impressively at Epsom last year, so he could not be in better hands.

9. DENMARK Aidan O’Brien (IRE)

b c Camelot – Board Meeting (Anabaa)
Odds 25-1

Denmark failed by a short neck to overhaul Souzak when a hot favourite for a very valuable conditions race over a mile at Longchamp on Arc weekend, having been hampered when leading fancy Munch went wrong with two furlongs to go. He had won his only previous race in style, despite running green and unseating Ryan Moore after the line, and he looks sure to improve again when tackling middle distances. He’ll need to, though.

10. PROUD AND REGAL Donnacha O’Brien (IRE)

b c Galileo – Simply Perfect (Danehill)
Odds 25-1

Donnacha O’Brien had to give best to his older brother Joseph when Proud And Regal was second to Al Riffa over seven furlongs in the G1 National Stakes, but it was another improved effort from the colt.

Compensation was not long in coming, and it was another family affair when Proud And Regal beat the Aidan O’Brien-trained Espionage over an extra furlong in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, getting up close home after chasing the runner-up from the start. It didn’t look a vintage renewal, but as a son of Galileo, Proud And Regal looks set to improve when stepped up in distance again at three.

11. SLIPOFTHEPEN John & Thady Gosden (GB)

ch c Night Of Thunder- Free Verse (Danehill Dancer)
Odds 20-1

The Queen won four of the five British Classics, but in the Derby she frustratingly never bettered her 1953 second with Aureole. King Charles looks unlikely to give horse racing quite such devotion, but that could change if Slipofthepen, who was bred by his mother, was to succeed at Epsom.

That might sound fanciful, but the Night Of Thunder colt made a highly impressive start to his career in a one-mile novice on a foggy night at Kempton at the end of November and he could be anything. A mile and a half ought to be within reach at three.

12. ESPIONAGE Aidan O’Brien (IRE)

b c Galileo – Even Song (Mastercraftsman)
Odds 20-1

Only Aidan O’Brien will know where Espionage fits within the Ballydoyle pecking order, but the colt did enough at two to merit inclusion alongside Continuous and Denmark among an impressive list that is currently dominated by Auguste Rodin, but which no doubt includes some unheralded, and possibly unraced, colts of similar potential.

Three runs in soft and heavy ground at two yielded a front-running maiden win over seven furlongs at The Curragh and a G1 second to Proud And Regal over a mile at Saint-Cloud, where he was collared close home. There could well be more to come over further at three.

Bubbling under …

Aidan O’Brien usually has multiple runners in the Derby and Bertinelli is among his many other possibles, although he is by Justify and his all-weather win at Dundalk suggests he too might be targeted at US Triple Crown races. Also fairly prominent in some bookmakers lists are stablemates Victoria Road, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Alexandroupolis, a Camelot colt who comfortably beat subsequent G1 second Espionage (see above) at Galway on his only start. 

Chaldean’s trainer Andrew Balding has a more likely middle-distance type in The Foxes, who won the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile, while Dubai Mile, who was second in that race, could represent Charlie Johnston in his first season as Kingsley Park’s sole licence holder.

The Gosdens have another string to their bow in Crypto Force, who joined them after a G2 win at The Curragh for Michael O’Callaghan, and easy Nottingham winner Liberty Lane would be an interesting candidate for Karl Burke, who has already had a Derby second and whose team goes from strength to strength.

• Visit the Epsom Derby website

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