Expert picks for Saturday’s horse races at Churchill Downs – Courier Journal
Expert picks for Saturday’s horse races at Churchill Downs Courier Journal
While the Preakness will emanate from Pimlico, Saturday will also be a busy day at Churchill Downs. Here are expert predictions for Saturday’s races.
Gentry Estes, Louisville Courier Journal Published 3:50 p.m. ET May 17, 2019
There are 11 races on the card at Churchill Downs on what will be Preakness Day in Baltimore. The first post time is 12:45 p.m.
Race 1
Look for a quicker pace with the top contenders all being early runners here. No. 5 GIANNA’S GIFT is back on dirt and dropping distance after nearly winning a $25K claimer on turf last month at Gulfstream. No. 3 ARROWSPHERE drops blinkers after fading badly 17 days ago at Churchill. Consistency is the question, but the upside is there. No. 4 DON’TEATMYCOOKIES has been off since January but flashed good speed in California. She should be near the front until the latter stages and looks like the best bet of the three to hang around on the board if not a winner. If a late runner is going to have a shot from off the pace, it seems to be No. 6 MOLLY’S GAME. She’ll need to perform at a higher level to get it done, though.
5-3-4
Value: 6
Race 2
Trainer Mike Maker is building a strong spring meet, and No. 7 SIR NAVIGATOR is coming off a blistering workout in the past week. This is a very well-matched field, but give him the slight edge in the second race after a long layoff. No. 3 MIDWEST JUSTICE has run some torrid fractions up front in previous races and held up late. Got to like the consistency for No. 5 DATA DRIVEN, who has been on the board in 16 of 22 career races and 10 of 11 since the start of 2018. No. 2 RICHARD’S BOY is back very quickly and switching surfaces after flopping as the favorite in a turf sprint last Sunday. The form is a gamble, but if you can get a good price on a Breeders’ Cup runner in a claiming race, it’s worth considering.
7-3-5
Value: 2
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Race 3
No. 5 SWEET DIANE debuts as a 3-year-old for trainer Eddie Kenneally after making the board in all five races — the last three of them stakes — and drawing into the Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico before scratching. That tells you the kind of class she’ll bring into this one. She’s clearly the one to beat. No. 6 SARACOSA is coming off a pair of sharp works and should be in contention. No. 7 GOOD CREATION is coming off a nice effort at this distance in his last race. A sharp pace could make long shot No. 3 SHEZAPPEALING dangerous late.
5-6-7
Value: 3
Race 4
No. 2 MALIBU MO takes a huge class drop for Brad Cox after a couple of pedestrian performances at Oaklawn Park, going to a $10K maiden claimer. A son of Uncle Mo, he hasn’t shown much but has to be favored. Dale Romans has No. 1A POW on the also-eligible list in what could be a coupled entry with No. 1 RED ROVER for Calumet Farm. A son of Curlin, Pow ran second a week ago and would be dropping in class and worth a look if he draws in together with Red Rover, who is also taking a big class drop. No. 11 THE KID IN SYD could hit the board. No. 4 IMPOSSIBLE MISSION could improve in a second race on dirt and has experienced this distance before.
2-1A/1-11
Value: 4
Race 5
Lot of early runners at a mile here, and the pace could set up well for No. 3 ITALIAN CHARM late in a first run for trainer Matt Shirer, who has fared well with new claims. No. 1 SIGHTFORSOREEYES is dropping in class quite a bit and could fit well here. No. 7 IKE WALKER got off to a bad start last race but should bounce back in a first start for Steve Asmussen. No. 6 MALIBU WOOD has been off since November but works suggest he’ll be ready to run, perhaps at a price.
3-1-7
Value: 6
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Race 6
Great allowance race here between a lot of promising 3-year-old fillies. After winning her debut, well-bred No. 8 COMIC KITTEN was in a Grade 1 race second time out. She has consistently closed well and is coming off a strong effort. No. 5 DELTA KINGDOM has gone from an early runner and become more of a closer, winning a maiden race last time out. No. 3 DELCAPEM has taken well to turf and is coming off a maiden win with jockey Julien Leparoux, who is back aboard. There could be some nice value for quite a few capable runners here, but No. 10 MAID IN THE MIST could get a great trip if she’s left alone on the lead, having just wired a MSW field at Keeneland to win by nearly 3 lengths.
8-5-3
Value: 10
Race 7
Todd Pletcher trained No. 3 SEA SHARK until he was claimed last race at Gulfstream Park. The horse has been off since February and could be sitting on a strong return effort. Brad Cox’s debuting No. 10 SPIROGYRA will probably be a popular betting option after a series of strong workouts. On paper at least, he looks quite formidable in this spot. No. 4 GAME DAY DECISION needs to get out of the gate quicker but is dropping distance with Leparoux and could benefit from a speedy pace. No. 9 ONE FOR RITCHIE is coming off a poor run on turf but is going back to dirt and has competitive early speed.
3-10-4
Value: 9
Race 8
No. 1 J BOYS ECHO, a former Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes runner, drops into a $30K claimer here for Dale Romans, dropping down in distance, too. The form has been off for a while, so maybe this wakes up the former Gotham Stakes winner. If not, No. 2 BOURBON COUNTY should be in the mix late, and No. 8 JACKTASTIC figures to improve in his third start off a layoff after nearly missing a win at Keeneland. No. 9 LONG BLADE has improved his speed figure each race but is now switching to dirt after a series of turf sprints. The added distance and surface switch are both big question marks, but the speed looks to be for real.
1-2-8
Value: 9
Race 9
For The Grade 3 Louisville, Leparoux is back aboard No. 2 NESSY after a narrow win at Keeneland in the last race over No. 4 SHAROZE. Leparoux has ridden a couple of other good horses in this field, so that choice of No. 2 could be telling. Meanwhile, No. 3 SOGLIO looks formidable in a short but strong field. No. 6 VETTORI KIN won this race last year (with Leparoux), but that was the horse’s most recent win, meaning perhaps some decent value.
2-3-4
Value: 6
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Race 10
No. 7 TACTICAL PURSUIT was dominant as a favorite at Keeneland last time out. This one figures to be a tougher ask, but there could be an improvement here considering that was his first try on dirt. No. 8 ICONIC looks competitive at this level and distance. No. 1 INDIGO YANKEE is risky coming off a long layoff, but he ran very well last time on dirt. No. 3 MOSCOW MINISTER rolled to a four-length win last time at a longer distance and 15-1 odds, a huge improvement for Ken McPeek’s 3-year-old.
7-8-1
Value: 3
Race 11
No. 2 CALL TO VICTORY lost last time out to a good horse and could like the added distance here. No. 8 PLATINUM PAYNTER has run well twice on turf and adds distance. She wasn’t far back at Keeneland last time. Bill Mott is adding distance for No. 9 BONNET, and she could improve in her second race. No. 7 ARTISTIC is a daughter of Scat Daddy who once sold for $300K. That’s perhaps worth a flier on a 30-1 morning-line price.
2-8-9
Value: 7
Gentry Estes: 502-582-4205; gestes@courierjournal.com; Twitter: @Gentry_Estes. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/gentrye.