Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle: big-race guide and tip – Racing TV
A deep field is set to line up for the Grade One Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle and Tom Thurgood asks some key questions, puts each runner under the microscope and offers his verdict. Don’t miss the big race on Sunday afternoon live on Racing TV!
This looks a proper race.
The Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle hasn’t thrown up too many surprises in recent years with only one winner at double-figure odds since 1997 (McKinley at 33-1 in 2015) while seven have gone in at odds-on in that time – with four more further winners at no bigger than 6-4.
Grangeclare West and Irish Point look the main principals here – representing the Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards that have won eight of the last nine renewals between them – but there is quality in this field even at the bigger prices and this is a race to enjoy and look back on in the run-up to the spring festivals.
Yet this is a Grade One prize in its own right and eight runners bid to land the opening top-level contest of the new year in Ireland. Here’s our guide to each contender with a big-race verdict.
Grangeclare West or Irish Point at the top of the market?
Grangeclare West is a best-priced 11-8 against Irish Point at 7-2. That’s a big swing and, even if you’re a big believer in the Willie Mullins favourite, I think that disparity is too big.
Grangeclare West looked good at Navan and he’s one of the bigger potential improvers here, but the time wasn’t anything eye-opening and while it’s early days the form hasn’t been well-advertised since. They went fairly steady for most of that maiden hurdle – the 125-rated Jungle Prose posted faster mid-race splits in the handicap hurdle over further later on the card – while Dawn Rising was around 16 lengths quicker overall in the Monksfield over course and distance despite benefitting from a fairly obvious pace collapse in that Grade Three race.
He could be the real deal but Irish Point probably has more known substance about him as Grade One runner-up. They went quick for the first half of the Royal Bond and he benefitted from being ridden slightly off the pace, but he travelled well and aragubly hit the front too soon before running on well to the line. The manner he went through that race suggests this intermediate distance will suit and that could unlock further improvement, while he should have more pace in front of him once again here.
Gordon Eliott has a strong record in this race – when focusing on his first-string contenders when he’s been doubly represented, the trainer has four winners from seven runners this century to good figures.
Questions about those at shorter odds?
The 2023 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle: live on Racing TV!
Champ Kiely (13-2) and Dawn Rising (10-1) are among the next in the betting but you could argue they that their prices are a little short.
Champ Kiely has always travelled with enthusiasm – if not a little keenly – and is a quick jumper. He also showed good speed when stacking up his rivals from the front and sprinting home at Tipperary on his penultimate start while he ultimately tired after travelling strongly in the Royal Bond, so confidence would be higher if this was over the minimum trip rather than this intermediate distance against several rivals who like to take up prominent positions. He also adjusted to his right when jumping at Tipperary and he may prefer going that way round rather than this left-handed route.
Dawn Rising is typically improving as novices do for this top yard and his jumping has notably improved, though he still looked novicey on his third hurdles start at Navan and he capitalised on Affordale Fury (reopposes here) and American Mike going too quickly up front in that Monksfield Novice Hurdle. Dawn Rising was ridden a bit off that overly strong pace but still got to the seventh of the 11 hurdles around 35 lengths quicker than Grangeclare West did over course and distance and it’s fair to say he picked up the pieces somewhat.
Who appeals most at bigger prices?
Bryan Cooper was very complimentary about Monbeg Park two starts ago at Punchestown. Keith Donoghue takes the ride on Sunday
I like Monbeg Park coming down in trip here and, while not a huge percentage swing, I’d have him more like a 14-1 or 16-1 chance rather than the current 28-1 on offer.
He’s an enthusiastic racer and a quick jumper despite his size and gave Affordale Fury something to think about on hurdles debut at Galway despite a momentum-juddering mistake at the last. I think they should be closer together in the betting here.
Monbeg Park also jumped well at speed down the back at Cork last time and shaped better than the formbook superficially suggests, only just losing out for second and being beaten by a potential top-notcher over three miles in Hiddenvalley Lake. He could have some pace in front of him here to take him into the business end of the race with some sort of chance and he could hit the places.
Affordale Fury runs a bit more keen than ideal but he definitely has an engine and I thought he ran well in the Monksfield when going too hard up front with American Mike. He had a hard race there but has had a break since and he’s essentially a decent jumper, so his tired spill doesn’t lead to genuine concerns. He gets on with the job and it’s possible he could reverse form with Dawn Rising despite his bigger price, especially if racing more amenably.
The others?
“I loved him the first day and I love him even more after today” – Mark Walsh on Inothewayurthinkin last time
Inothewayurthinkin is in many ways the genuine unknown quantity here and he ranks as one of the bigger improvers, even in victory last time running around at the final two obstacles in the straight. He’s finished strongly at the end of both of his races despite looking somewhat clueless and there is surely more to come, while two and a half miles can trigger a further jump in forward progress. While one of the younger contenders here, five-year-olds have fared pretty well in this race since 1997 (three winners and six placed from 26 runners; 17% of the winners from 12.5% of the total runners).
I like Imagine but his big price is testament to the quality of this race. The form of his hurdles debut at Wexford has worked out very nicely and he looked somewhat unsuited by the relative speed test behind Hercule De Seuil in Grade Three company at Naas, but that horse was only sent off at 12-1 and ultimately didn’t feature in the Royal Bond while Imagine was easily beaten by Inothewayurthinkin last time. It’s hard to envisage him reversing the form here but he’s one of the better jumpers in the line-up who will win more races.
Kalanisi Star was sent off at a short price in Grade Two company at Limerick last time and he wouldn’t be the first horse to not handle the unique testing ground at that track, but while the peformance weas at odds with hios starting price he seemed to run his racer there and his form as a whole doesn’t really match up to the rest of these so far. He looks the merited outsider.
Big-race verdict
7
J. W. Kennedy | Gordon Elliott, Ireland
14:20 Naas
9/4This is a high-class race with genuine depth, yet there’s the feeling that Grangeclare West and Irish Point may prove better than the rest and they look the two to concentrate on for win purposes.
Grangeclare West has all the attributes on paper, has won both Rules starts impressively and could be the real deal, but Irish Point has already ‘done it’ in terms of high-class hurdling form and should have more to offer at this trip. He looks overpriced in comparison to the short-priced favourite and I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying him at much more than 5-2, so he looks the bet at current odds.
Monbeg Park is the other runner who I have down at clearly shorter on my tissue, albeit to a much smaller percentage swing. He’s interesting down in trip and his racing demeanour suggests this is the right move, while he’s already shaped quite well in Graded company already and has an experience edge on most of these. I’ll be having a look in markets with four places.
Inothewayurthinkin is one of the more fascinating ones here and falls into the ‘could be anything category.’ I’m looking forward to learning more about him and it would be no surprise if he made his presence felt.